Gas Price Forecast End Of September 2025 US Shifts
Gas Price Forecast End of September 2025 US: Key Risks
By late September 2025, the U.S. national average gasoline price is forecast to settle between $3.10 and $3.20 per gallon, with Henry Hub natural gas trading in the $2.90-$3.20/MMBtu range. This represents a 14-cent decline from Labor Day 2024 and marks the lowest end-of-summer gasoline price since 2020, driven by record domestic production, robust refinery margins, and elevated LNG export feedgas demand that has tightened near-term supply dynamics.
Core Price Levels and Market Context
The EIA projects 2025 gasoline prices to fall 11 cents per gallon (approximately 3%) compared to 2024, averaging roughly $3.22/gallon for the year. As of early September 2025, Henry Hub closed near $3.11/MMBtu after trading within a $2.85-$3.12 range, with short-term forecasts pointing to continued stability in the $2.90-$3.20 corridor.
| Metric | Forecast Range (Late Sep 2025) | YoY Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Gasoline Average | $3.10-$3.20/gal | -4.5% | High refinery throughput |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | $2.90-$3.20/MMBtu | -8.0% | Record production (108 bcf/d) |
| LNG Export Feedgas | ~20-22 bcfd by year-end | +12% YoY | Global cargo demand surge |
| Working Gas Inventory | 2,391 Bcf (+6.6% vs 5-yr avg) | +101 bcf injection | Above-average storage build |
Primary Downside Risks to the Forecast
Three structural risks could disrupt the baseline forecast and push prices higher into Q4 2025:
- Tariff policy shocks: Elevated risks stem from potential tariffs on key trade partners (Canada, Mexico, Russia), which could constrain crude imports and lift refined product costs.
- Production volatility: While Lower 48 output hit a record 108 bcf/d in July 2025, a 4.0 bcfd drop to 106.1 bcfd in late May revealed sensitivity to price-driven drilling cuts.
- Weather-driven demand spikes: Early cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Southeast already boosted power-generation demand, adding a structural risk premium to U.S. contracts as European and Asian buyers compete for cargoes.
LNG Export Demand as a Price Floor
Feedgas flows to LNG liquefaction facilities are recovering after spring maintenance at Freeport LNG and Golden Pass, with total export demand up roughly 3.0 bcfd year-over-over-year over the past 30 days. Projections indicate feedgas will climb steadily through summer, potentially reaching 22 bcfd by year-end, creating sustained baseline demand support for domestic natural gas prices.
Deloitte analysis confirms that U.S. LNG exports will drive demand over the next five years as global export capacity expands through 2030, intensifying competition for American cargoes and tightening domestic supply. This structural shift means gas prices face resistance around $3.20/mmBtu unless extended heatwaves or sharper production declines occur.
Regional Price Variations and Infrastructure Constraints
Regional bottlenecks continue to create price divergence across the contiguous U.S. New pipeline capacity could relieve these constraints, impacting local price dynamics and market access for producers in the Permian Basin, which drives much of the nation's production growth.
- Pennsylvania & Arkansas: Led production declines of roughly 4.0 bcfd, creating regional supply tightness.
- Gulf Coast LNG hubs: Benefit from recovering feedgas flows post-maintenance, supporting local price premiums.
- East Coast heating markets: Positioned for autumn price spikes if storage injections slow and TTF prices hover around $9.5-$10/MMBtu.
Strategic Implications for LNG Industry Stakeholders
For executives, investors, and procurement teams, the basin-level production data signals a market transitioning from oversupply concerns toward balanced fundamentals driven by export demand. The Permian Basin's record output in July 2025 (108 bcf/d) demonstrates resilience, but price-driven drilling cuts reveal vulnerability to sustained low-price environments.
"US natural gas production is reaching new heights, with the Permian Basin driving much of this growth. In July 2025, production hit a record 108 bcf/d."
With storage inventories 6.6% above the five-year average at 2,391 Bcf, the market has a buffer against short-term disruptions, but above-average injection rates could cap upside momentum unless heatwaves persist. This dynamic favors long-term LNG off-take agreements over spot market exposure for procurement teams seeking price stability.
What are the most common questions about Gas Price Forecast End Of September 2025 Us Shifts?
What is the forecast U.S. gasoline price for end of September 2025?
The national average is forecast to be $3.10-$3.20 per gallon, with GasBuddy predicting $3.15/gallon for Labor Day 2025-the lowest since 2020.
What is the Henry Hub natural gas forecast for Q4 2025?
Prices are projected to trade in the $2.90-$3.20/MMBtu range, with some analysts seeing upside to $4.30/MMBtu next year if supply tightens.
What are the biggest risks to gas prices in late September 2025?
Key risks include tariff policy shocks on trade partners, production volatility from drilling cuts, and weather-driven demand spikes from early cooling seasons.
How do LNG exports affect U.S. domestic gas prices?
LNG exports create sustained baseline demand, with feedgas flows up 3.0 bcfd YoY and projected to reach 22 bcfd by year-end, supporting a structural price floor.
Is gasoline cheaper in 2025 compared to 2024?
Yes-2025 prices are forecast to drop 11 cents per gallon (about 3%) versus 2024, with the yearly average around $3.22/gallon.
